By Jason Vance
JVance@cherryroad.com

The 2025 U.S. apple crop forecast is 11.5 billion pounds. This marks the third season in the last decade that annual production exceeded 11 billion pounds. That would be a six percent increase year over year but similar to production in 2023.

“In Washington, the largest apple producing state, the crop is forecast to be eight billion pounds, seven percent higher or 520 million pounds more than last year,” said USDA Research Economist Catharine Weber. “If realized the 2025 apple crop will be the largest in Washington history.”

Eighty percent of Washington apples go to the fresh market, which is higher than the next three apple producing states of New York, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those states had a fresh market share of closer to 50 percent over the last five years.

“In New York apple production is forecast to increase 12 percent year over year ranking second production with 1.45 billion pounds,” Weber said. “That would be New York’s largest crop since 2022.”

Weber says Pennsylvania is forecast to produce 430 million pounds of apples in 2025, which represents four percent of U.S. production. That is similar to last year and overall fruit quality is reported as high.

Virginia and Oregon are each forecast to produce 165 million pounds of apples in 2025. Weber says the Oregon crop is up 38 percent year over year and is the largest since 2020.

“The U.S. Apple Association expects a record size Honey-crisp crop in 2025-2026,” Weber said. “If realized Honey-crisp would rank third in apple varieties by volume for the first time surpassing Granny Smith but continuing to trail behind Gala and Red Delicious.”

Also of note is a rise in fresh apple exports over the last two seasons. Weber says in 2024-2025 marketing year the United States exported 25 percent of its fresh market apple production volume. That totaled 1.85 billion pounds in volume and one billion pounds by value.

Weber says in 2024-2025 the fresh market apple the fresh apple export volume was 129 million pounds lower than last season but 19 percent higher than the previous five year average.